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The Gibbs Team

512-431-2403

The Gibbs Team

July 15, 2016 By Mary Lynne Gibbs

June & Mid-Year 2016 Austin Real Estate Review

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Click on any image above to view infographics for each area.

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Austin Board of REALTORS® releases June 2016 & Mid-Year 2016 Central Texas Housing Market Report

AUSTIN, Texas – July 15, 2016 – Single-family home sales and prices experienced strong gains throughout the Central Texas region in the first half of 2016, according to the June & Mid-Year 2016 Central Texas Housing Market Report released today by the Austin Board of REALTORS®.

“Despite the ongoing housing shortage and affordability challenges impacting our region, population growth and housing demand continue to drive home sales upward,” said Aaron Farmer, 2016 President of the Austin Board of REALTORS­®. “The Austin-Round Rock housing market is on track to outpace 2015 market levels, which was a record-breaking year for home sales.”

Austin-Round Rock Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)

Single-family home sales in the five-county Austin-Round Rock MSA rose 6.1 percent year-over-year to 14,482 home sales in the first half of 2016, while median price rose seven percent year-over-year to $282,000. Home listings also experienced gains in the first half of the year, with active listings increasing 6.6 percent to 5,290 listings, new listings rising 5.7 percent to 20,060 listings, and pending sales rising 7.2 percent to 15,909 sales.

Rising home sales and home prices means a greater impact on the region’s economy as well. Sales dollar volume in the Austin-Round Rock area was $5,073,874,678, an 11.5 percent increase from the first six months of 2015.

Single-family housing market activity continued to be strong in June 2016, with home sales jumping to 3,219 sales, an 8.5 percent increase compared to June 2015. Median price rose 8.2 percent to $295,500 during the same time frame. Monthly housing inventory remained unchanged at 2.5 months, which is less than half of the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University’s benchmark of 6.5 months as a balanced housing market.

City of Austin

Despite ongoing housing affordability challenges, single-family home sales in the City of Austin increased 3.4 percent to 4,465 home sales in the first half of 2016. Of the 21,036 single-family homes sold in the 18-county Central Texas region in the first half of 2016, approximately only one in five (21 percent) were sold within the Austin city limits. Median price increased 5.6 percent to $339,652 in the first half of the year, while active listings jumped 20.1 percent to 1,298 listings during the same time frame.

In June 2016, Austin home sales increased 2.6 percent to 975 home sales, while median price increased only 2.9 percent to $350,000. Monthly housing inventory increased 0.3 months to 2.1 months, while homes spent a little more than one month (32 days) on the market on average, an increase of two days from June 2015.

“The Central Texas housing market is performing very well, but extreme housing shortages across the region continue to be a challenge,” said Jim Gaines, Chief Economist at the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. “Homes under $300,000 have less than two months of inventory in the Austin-Round Rock MSA, which means that housing at these price ranges is essentially nonexistent. The growing “donut effect” of homes sales activity as homebuyers move outside Austin city limits in search of more affordable housing is on pace to continue in the near future.”

Travis County

In the first half of 2016, Travis County single-family home sales increased 4.9 percent year-over-year to 7,203 home sales–nearly half of all single-family homes sold in the five-county MSA during the same time frame. In the meantime, median price increased 7.8 percent year-over-year to $330,000. In June 2016, single-family home sales increased 5.2 percent to 1,567 home sales, median price rose 10 percent to $357,500. However, monthly housing inventory stayed steady at 2.6 months.

Williamson County

Williamson County single-family home sales jumped 11.9 percent year-over-year to 1,140 home sales in June 2016, while median price rose 8.7 percent to $269,500 during the same time frame. Housing inventory dropped 0.2 months to 2.1 months of inventory in June 2016, making the housing shortage in Williamson County equally as critical as in the City of Austin.

In the first half of 2016, single-family home sales jumped 7.2 percent to 4,966 home sales, while median price rose 6.3 percent to $260,000. More homes were sold in Williamson County in the first half of the year than in the City of Austin (4,465 home sales year to date), despite having a population half the size of the City of Austin’s.

Hays County

In the first half of 2016, Hays County single-family home sales rose 5.1 percent year-over-year to 1,677 home sales, while median price increased 4.7 percent year-over-year to $243,000. As a result of strong housing development and sales activity throughout the county, new listings increased 12.2 percent year-over-year to 2,332 listings and active listings jumped 17.3 percent year-over-year to 732 listings in the first half of the year. In June 2016, single-family home sales increased 5.8 percent year-over-year to 366 home sales, while median price crept up 2.3 percent to $249,950 during the same time frame.

“It’s important that we think of the growing housing affordability crisis not just as an Austin issue, but also as a regional challenge,” concluded Farmer. “Housing supply shortages have reached critical levels throughout the region and areas with affordably priced homes are becoming smaller and father away from jobs. Some homebuyers are now looking at homes an hour or more outside of Austin to find a home that they can afford. City of Austin leaders as well of those of surrounding cities must come together to solve our region’s challenges in housing supply, affordability and infrastructure.”

Filed Under: Blog Tagged With: Austin Real Estate Market, Keller Williams Realty, Market Update, The Gibbs Team

July 1, 2016 By Mary Lynne Gibbs

Fourth of July Festivities!

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Lakeway’s July Fourth celebration. The annual parade begins at 10:30 a.m. Friday at Live Oak Golf Course, 510 Lakeway Drive, and ends at Lakeway Activity Center, 105 Cross Creek; it will be followed by the Pageant of Flags, which will include a free continental breakfast and live music. Free. The Lakeway Swim Center will be open from noon to 9 p.m. ($3 per person). Visit www.lakeway-tx.gov

Hill Country Galleria’s 4th of July Celebration. Enjoy shopping, dining, live music, and fireworks! Bring chairs or blankets and enjoy the live music starting at 6:30 p.m.  The Candy Jar will be on-site serving up snowballs & treats.  Children can enjoy a complimentary face painter. Fireworks are always shot off northwest of the outdoor Amphitheater.  The prime viewing area is on the Amphitheater’s grassy lawn or the east side of the Amphitheater (nearest The Candy Jar). Firework show will take place at approximately 9:15 p.m. Parking and admission are always free. 12700 Hill Country Blvd. Ste. T-100 Bee Cave, TX 78738.

Bob Schneider’s 4th of July Bash @ Nutty Brown Cafe. Saturday, July 2nd, 2016 at 7:30pm. Bob Schneider is back for his annual 4th of July Bash at the Nutty Brown Cafe with a spectacular fireworks show! Tickets start at $20 for general admission (all ages), and can be purchased online here.

4th of July Celebration. Free watermelon, carnival games, face painting and more, all leading up to a fireworks display. 4 to 10:30 p.m. Friday. Free. Milburn Park, 1901 Sun Chase Blvd., Cedar Park. 512-401-5888. cedarparktexas.gov.

Cedar Park 4th of July Parade. Begins at 10 a.m. at the Cedar Park Center, 2100 Avenue of the Stars, travels down Discovery Boulevard, and ends at the Cedar Park Recreation Center, 1435 Main St., Cedar Park. 512-401-5888. cedarparktexas.gov.

Leander Liberty Fest. Games, activities, vendors and a live performance from Roger Creager with special guest Bri Bagwell, followed by a fireworks display. 6 to 10 p.m. Friday. Free. Festival entry will be on U.S. 183A South between San Gabriel Parkway and Hero Way. leandertx.gov.

Northwest Austin Civic Association Fourth of July Parade. The parade will begin at 9 a.m. Friday on the corner of Far West Boulevard and Waterline Road, and end at Doss Elementary School, 7005 Northledge Drive. Visit nwaca2org.

Pflugerville Pfirecracker Pfestival. Live music and vendors, festival food and games for kids followed by a fireworks display. 3 to 11 p.m. Friday. Free. Lake Pflugerville, 18216 Weiss Lane. 512-990-06113, www.pflugervilletx.gov.

Round Rock Express Fourth of July Fireworks. The team will play against the Nashville Sounds, followed by a fireworks display. 7:05 p.m. Friday and Saturday. $16. Dell Diamond, 3400 East Palm Valley, Round Rock. milb.com.

Sertoma Club July 4th Celebration and Fireworks. Enjoy arts and crafts vendors, food vendors, a petting zoo, children’s rides and a car show with antique and classic vehicles, followed by a fireworks display. 11 a.m. Friday. Free. San Gabriel Park, 445 E. Morrow, Georgetown. georgetown.org.

July 4th celebration and fireworks at San Gabriel Park. The fireworks display begins at approximately 9:30 p.m. Fireworks will be launched from the McMaster Athletic Fields on N. College Street. Fireworks can be viewed from San Gabriel Park, VFW Park, and other areas in Georgetown.

“Pit-Nic.” Live music, games and cool zones, Stubb’s barbecue, and a special Independence Day cocktail. 2 p.m. Friday-Sunday. Free. Mean Eyed Cat, 1621 W. Fifth St., 512-920-6645. themeaneyedcat.com.

Austin Symphony H-E-B July Fourth Concert & Fireworks. Patriotic music and fireworks at Circuit of the Americas. 8:30 p.m. Friday. Free and open to the public. 9201 Circuit of the Americas Blvd. austinsymphony.org.

“Sixty from the ’60s.” Free admission on Friday to the exhibit featuring 60 Americans who helped mold movements, trends and lifestyles of the 1960s. 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. LBJ Presidential Library, 2312 Red River. 512-721-0200. lbjlibrary.org.

July 4th Pickled-Egg Eating Contest. Compete to win $250; benefits Little Artist BIG ARTIST, a mentoring program in East Austin elementary schools. 4:30 p.m. Friday. $20. Haymaker, 2310 Manor Road. For more information contact events@haymakeraustin.com or go to www.haymakeraustin.com.

4th of July Concert & Fireworks. Patriotic music by Starlight Symphony Orchestra with area choirs, followed by fireworks display on the front lawn at Hays CISD Performing Arts Center. 7 to 9:30 p.m. Friday. Free. 21003 Interstate 35, Kyle. 512-268-2141. hayscisd.net.

SummerFest! Live music, children’s patriotic costume parade, patriotic program, fireworks display at 9:30 p.m. 6 p.m. to 11 p.m. Friday. Free. San Marcos Plaza Park, 206 N. CM Allen Parkway. Parking at Strahan Coliseum Parking Lot. Lions Club Tube Rental open all day; Rio Vista Pool open from noon–6 p.m. ($2 kids, $3 adults) www.summerfestsmtx.com.

Patriotic Festival. Family-friendly activities, followed by Patriotic music by Austin Symphonic Band and a fireworks display. 6 p.m. Saturday. Free. Fisherman’s Park, 1200 Willow St., Bastrop. Visit www.bastropchamber.com

“Push, Pedal and Pull People’s Patriotic Parade.” The parade will begin at 10 a.m. Friday at City Hall, 310 N. Main St., and concludes at Veterans’ Memorial Park, 109 Depot St.; it will be followed by a July Fourth program. Free. Visit elgintx.com.

Delwood’s annual 4th of July Parade and Neighborhood Celebration. Parade begins at 9 a.m. Friday at 1200 Bentwood Road and will feature vintage cars, floats and musicians, followed by a noon picnic that includes food, live music, a pie contest and children’s activities. Free.

Folk of July Festival. Two stages with performances from the Whiskey Sisters, the Harmed Brothers, Aisha Burns, Canvas People and more. Doors at 6:30 p.m. Saturday. $10. Historic Scoot Inn, 1308 E 4th St, Austin, TX 78702.

Filed Under: Blog Tagged With: Austin events, Circuit of the Americas, July 4th Fireworks, Keller Williams Realty, The Gibbs Team, Things to do in Austin

June 28, 2016 By Mary Lynne Gibbs

Advantages of Real Estate Investing for Savvy Entrepreneurs

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I’ve had numerous conversations with entrepreneurs lately who have come to the conclusion that they need to start diversifying their business profits into more than just a savings account. If this is you – pay close attention.

Being a real estate investor isn’t always glamorous but it is one of the best ways to build wealth over the long-haul, especially for the entrepreneurial-minded. Here are six reasons why you should consider investing in rental properties.

1. Cash flow.
Many people invest in rental properties simply because of the cash flow – the extra money that is left after all the bills have been paid. The cash flow can provide ongoing, monthly income that is mostly passive, allowing you to spend your time building a business, traveling or reinvesting in more real estate.

Cash flow from real estate is stable and far more predictable than most other businesses. That’s great for entrepreneurs enduring the ups and downs of start-up life. The cash flow can help float you though the bad times and live well during the good times.

2. Tax benefits.
Let me ask you a quick question: if you earn $100,000 at your own business and I earn $100,000 through rental properties, who get’s to keep more?

That’s right: I do. Because the government rewards rental property owners.

Not only is the cash flow received from your rentals not subject to self-employment tax, the government offers tax benefits including depreciation and significantly lower tax-rates for long-term profits.

3. The loan pay down.
When you buy a rental property using a mortgage, your tenant is actually the one paying the mortgage payment, thus increasing your net worth each month. Because of the loan pay down a rental property is essentially a savings account that grows automatically, without you depositing money each month.

Today you might owe $200,000 on a rental property, but next year you might only owe $195,000 because the tenant is making the payment for you, making you $5,000 richer. Thirty years down the road, or whatever the term of your loan, it’s paid down to $0. You own a significant asset that you can sell or continue renting, all thanks to your tenant paying the mortgage.

Related: Looking for Stable Business Ideas? Here Are 12 Types of Companies With Healthy Cash Flow.

4. Appreciation.
While the loan is being paid down the value of real estate, generally, goes up. Yes, I know, recessions do happen. Values do go up and down. People buy at the wrong time of the market. I get it.

However…

Over time, values do climb higher and higher. That’s why I’m not in this real estate game just for a year or even a decade. I’m in this for life. I know my properties will continue to climb so that 30 years from now, everything will be worth far more than I’m paying for it today.

5. A hedge against inflation.
Can you imagine paying ten dollars for a gallon of milk? Or five dollars for a candy bar? While those prices seem exorbitant to you, this is the future because of inflation. Inflation is the process by which prices increase due to the value of money decreasing.

While most people fear inflation, as a rental property owner, I look forward to it!

When the price of a gallon of milk hits ten bucks a gallon, guess what else is going to shoot through the roof? Everything, including rents and property values! The one thing that won’t increase, however, is my fixed-rate mortgage payment. As inflation pushes the cost of living higher and higher, my cash flow will only increase. This is why real estate is often called “a hedge against inflation.” When inflation hits – I’m ready!

6. Control.
I don’t like my destiny tied to a board room on Wall Street or a nervous CEO in Silicon Valley.

This is why I choose to invest most of my income in real estate, knowing that I am the one who is responsible for my success or failure.

If I want a better deal, I need to hustle to find it.
If the rental market gets more competitive, I can compensate by increasing my advertising.
If values drop, I can choose to wait it out or improve the property to drive the value back up.
In other words, I get to control the situation, and my financial future, with my own two hands. And that suits me just fine.

Don’t think that just by owning some rentals you are instantly going to begin building wealth. Real estate is powerful – but only if you work it right.

You must learn how to find great deals, how to evaluate a real estate investment, and how to finance any properties you want to buy. Additionally, you must treat it like a business and nurture it as it matures. It’s likely not going to be totally passive up front, but as millions of individuals throughout history have discovered, the payoff is well worth the journey.

Source: Brandon Turner, entreprenuer.com

Filed Under: Blog Tagged With: Austin Real Estate, Keller Williams, Real Estate, real estate investing, The Gibbs Team

June 23, 2016 By Mary Lynne Gibbs

May 2016 Austin Real Estate Review

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AUSTIN, Texas – June 21, 2016 – Single-family home sales jumped in Williamson County and across the Austin-Round Rock Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) in May 2016, according to the May 2016 Central Texas Housing Market Report released today by the Austin Board of REALTORS®.

“Housing demand continues to be at an all-time high in the Central Texas region, with properties priced under $500,000 selling rapidly,” said Aaron Farmer, 2016 President of the Austin Board of REALTORS­®. “Williamson County homes are among the most popular in the region due to the county’s highly-rated school districts, access to major thoroughfares and proximity to major employment hubs in Austin.”

Williamson County’s population is less than half that of Travis County, yet only 424 more single-family homes were sold in Travis County than Williamson County in May 2016. Williamson County home sales surged 19.5 percent year-over-year in May to 1,028 single-family home sales.

Single-family home sales also increased by double-digit margins across the Central Texas region, rising 13.2 percent annually to 4,297 home sales in May 2016. In the five-county MSA, single-family home sales rose 9.9 percent year-over-year to 2,909 home sales during the same time frame.

“Austin-Round Rock unemployment recently hit a 16-year low, largely thanks to Austin’s booming tech sector,” said Eldon Rude, principal at 360 Real Estate Analytics. “Tech companies such as Apple Computer continue to fuel employment growth in Northwest Austin and in turn, are driving home sales growth in southeast Williamson County where homes are less expensive and new home development continues to be strong.”

High home prices and critically low inventory levels continued to stifle home sales within the City of Austin, as more homebuyers look outside of Austin’s city limits for affordably priced housing. In May 2016, Austin single-family home sales remained statistically unchanged at 884 home sales.

Home prices throughout the Central Texas region continued to increase in May 2016, but at a slower pace. In the five-county MSA, median price rose 4.8 percent year-over-year to $288,085. In Williamson County, median price rose 5.2 percent annually to $261,822. The median price within Austin’s city limits was $355,000 in May 2016, a 1.6 percent increase from the year prior.

Monthly housing inventory within the Austin-Round Rock MSA was 2.4 months in May 2016, statistically unchanged from the year prior. Housing inventory within the City of Austin rose 0.2 months year-over-year to 1.9 months of inventory, while inventory within Williamson County fell 0.3 months annually to 1.9 months during the same time frame.

Housing inventory levels lower than 2.0 months are considered an extremely tight market by the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, which cites an inventory level of 6.5 months as a market in which the supply and demand for homes in balanced.

In the Austin-Round Rock MSA, pending sales jumped 21.1 percent to 3,297 pending sales in May 2016. Double-digit gains in pending sales were also evident across the 18-county Central Texas region, within the City of Austin and in Travis and Williamson counties.

“Strong gains in both pending sales and active listings both in Austin and regionally indicate a strong summer selling season could be ahead,” concluded Farmer. “A Central Texas REALTOR® can provide in-depth market expertise to help homebuyers and sellers navigate competitive housing market conditions.”

Filed Under: Blog Tagged With: Austin Real Estate Market, Keller Williams, Keller Williams Realty, Market Update, The Gibbs Team

June 20, 2016 By Mary Lynne Gibbs

Luxury homes trending towards buyers’ market

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its most recent job report showing that the U.S. economy added only 38,000 jobs in May, far below expectations. That’s much lower than the 150,000 new jobs the economy was expecting. A low jobs report number is a sign of a sluggish economy. The headline number was reduced by 35,100 due to striking workers at Verizon Communications. Without the strike, payrolls would have increased by 73,000. Either way, the jobs growth in May was much slower than it was earlier in the year.

Chart 1

Construction lost 15,000 jobs. That signals a slowdown in the housing market. U.S. manufacturing lost 10,000 jobs due to a strong dollar that hurt exports. Durable goods lost 18,000 jobs, with 500 from auto manufacturing. Pay close attention to how many manufacturing jobs are added or lost each month, since it is a future indicator of economic health. That’s because factories are less likely to add workers until they have orders for more goods in hand. Manufacturing employment provides a better leading indicator of future economic performance than does service employment, which stays more consistent through thick and thin.

The US hasn’t seen such low positive jobs gains since December 2010 — or, in other words, since the aftermath of the Great Recession.

What effect does this have?

  • The US dollar is getting slammed in world currency markets. When there is not confidence in the American labor market, the dollar loses value against other currencies. If the American dollar loses value, you lose buying power. As most of us know wages have not kept up with inflation.
  • With less confidence in the strength of the labor market, stock values drop historically.
  • Consumers are running for the safety of US Treasuries.

Another worrying sign is that the weakness in job creation appears to be spreading across industries.

Chart 2

Earlier this year, only mining and logging, durable goods manufacturing, and transportation were posting job losses. This was easily explained by shrinking domestic oil production as a result of a sharp decline in crude oil prices. Employment in oil extraction (part of the mining and logging sector) was shrinking, as was production of heavy equipment used in the oil sector, leading to job losses in durable goods manufacturing. Transportation of domestic crude oil (much of which is done by rail) was falling as well. There was a possibility that the weakness and the job losses would be contained in the industries affected by crude oil production.

But in April and May, it seems that the job losses spread to other industries. Now, in addition to mining, durable goods manufacturing and transportation, job losses have appeared in construction, wholesale trade, utilities, retail sales, and information services (although the last one is mostly due to a strike). Other industries continue to add jobs, but at a much slower pace than before. This is a worrying sign.

And yet, the unemployment rate still fell in May to 4.7 percent, from 5 percent in April. How can this be? The answer is not encouraging – the drop in the unemployment rate is mostly driven by people dropping out of the labor force. In May, 458,000 people left the labor force, after 362,000 did so in April. Such a substantial decrease in the labor force for two months is a row is unusual (see below) and is yet another worrying sign.

Chart 3

This was a very disappointing employment report with several worrying signs for the economy long term. It makes it nearly certain that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates when it meets in June. We will be watching other data carefully to see if the worrying signs seen here are confirmed by other information.

Local impacts

Austin and the other Texas metros continue to be sellers’ markets, with not enough commercial or residential inventory. However there are concerns in certain portions of the residential market, namely in luxury sales in Austin above $1 million.

The charts below show Austin luxury sales are still robust compared to the recession, but slower than 2013 or the highs of 2015.

Chart 4

So what happened? Take a look at the Austin $1+ million inventory report below. It clearly shows that in 2016, luxury above a million sales slowed and the amount of inventory picked up. Inventory doubled since 2015 to 20 months, reflecting a buyers’ market.

Chart 5

Consumer confidence in the Texas region has dropped 35 points in the last year. Consumers are not feeling as flush as they have previously. Luxury is showing it first. Historically the top portion of the market begins to show a slowing of the market first. It is not just a regional thing, we are seeing national GDP and inflation slow dramatically this last quarter. Declines in oil, rumors of another tech bubble, and confusing election hyperbole are causing many to be much more conservative in their selection process.

What would I tell your clients that are buying or selling in the over $1 million price category? It is still a good market if your listing is priced correctly. Those homes that are within 95 to 100% of the median price per square feet are still selling quickly. Be aware of what is in the neighborhood and what is in that price range. Not all houses are created equal. Values cannot be based just on square footage. Sellers will have difficulty moving their properties if they ‘ego price’.

On the demand side of the equation, some have asked if there are fewer companies and executives moving to Austin or other Texas metros. Those at the Chamber of Commerce are still seeing quality companies and executives moving here. However many in the equity business feel that technology is overvalued like 1999, and that there should be a correction. Therefore executives are much more conservative in spending, because of what they are hearing from markets. Trophy properties are taking almost three times as long to sell in Austin as what the rest of the market is doing.  As an analyst, I will tell you if priced correctly it should still sell.

Otherwise it is very much a sellers’ market. Austin is still creating jobs, the rental market continues to be tight, and most homes if properly priced have multiple offers. Real estate appreciation is apparent in all markets, channels, and Texas metros. At most price points there is not enough rentals or homes for sale. Foreclosures and short sells are a non-factor at less than 1% of the market. The Texas real estate market is still strong in all channels, but there is some softening in luxury homes. So yes, the market is changing, and yes we should continue to watch.

Filed Under: Blog Tagged With: Austin Real Estate Market, buyer's market, Keller Williams, Keller Williams Realty, Market Update, National Real Estate Market, The Gibbs Team

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